The  Nuclear  Chessboard

last updated 20061009
by
P V Nigam

This article appeared in the Central Chronicle, on 20060911




The agreement between President Bush and PM Manmohan Singh signed in July 2005 was purely for civilian nuclear power industry in India. But discussions in the US Congress show that the US wants to bring in nuclear weapons and India's foreign policy in the agreement. Hence we have to consider the agreement from geo-political angle.

According to the British diplomats in the second part of 19th century, certain constituents of American personality changed little with times. One was their "hardihood of claims", unrelenting persistence in striving for certain national objectives. Softly or boldly, bluntly or deviously, the Americans would persist, always persist. Most British Foreign Secretaries thought that Americans were encroaching and untrustworthy in their foreign relations. Another constituent was an expanding appetite for land or national advantage. There was a liberal amount of braggadio in American personality. For them treaties are meant to be broken. The Americans accused the English of doing the same things. Both Atlantic cousins knew each other well. After all, they were cousins. Both were right. Theodore Roosevelt wrote on September 23, 1914, "No paper guarantee or treaty will be worth the paper on which it is written, if it becomes to the interest of some other power to violate it unless we have the strength back of the treaty."

Our experience with the US proves that British assessment of Americans made long ago is still true.

This is not to argue that we should have no agreements with the US government. But, we must bear in mind the truth of American personality and protect our national self-interest in making the treaties in such a way that no misinterpretation is possible in future. An impression has been created in many people's minds that if we cannot import light water reactor power plants now, our economic growth rate will suffer. This is completely wrong. We have alternative type of power plants, which can allow our economic growth just the same. There is no fixed ratio of nuclear power to total power generating capacity of any nation.

The selection of type for any power plant depends on a variety of factors at any particular time frame.

Broadly, they are economic, business and a nation's natural energy sources. The proportion of nuclear power to total power generating capacity at present is 20% in the US, 78% in France, 27% in Japan, 16% in Russia, 1.3% in China and 2.8% in India.

To prevent any misinterpretation of Indo-US agreement of July 2005, (which is good for everyone), we should propose a preamble to the final agreement. Any interpretation not in conformity of the Preamble will be void. The following points should be written in the preamble:

(1) India is a nuclear weapons power in reality. (This is pre-requisite, as the US does not want to recognise the reality that we are a nuclear weapons power. This blindness to truth is creating confusion and causing change of goal posts.)

(2) It is India's sovereign right to decide the size and type of our nuclear arsenal, depending on our assessment of security threats at any point in time in this fast changing dynamic world.

(3) Corollary to 2 above: (a) India will decide the amount of fissile material production at any time. (b) India will carry out nuclear and missile tests as required.

(4) For the preservation of human race, India believes in a nuclear weapon-free world without any discrimination.

(5) The agreement will not impinge on India's foreign policy of non-alignment. The quadrennial review of February 2006 of US Defence department shows the US policy regarding India is to limit our power. It also shows that the US policy is to have an American thousand year Reich to dominate the world. This is Quixotic and ignores the present day reality. It is bound to fail, as did Churchill's dream of continuation and longevity of British Empire during WW II. We did not struggle to throw off British rule to change masters. We cannot become a satellite of any other power now. We should sign treaties on the basis of equality.

(The author is a prolific writer on nuclear problems of Pakistan & India)

PK Nigam



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